From Insight to Bets
Turn solid insights into clear product bets. You'll learn how to write a short opportunity brief, frame falsifiable hypotheses, set success and guardrail metrics, and define scope, owners, and decision rules. This is the bridge from discovery to testing, practical, light, and evidence-first.
Lessons
What a product bet really is
From insight → opportunity → bet (the chain of custody)
How to write a one-page opportunity brief
How to link evidence without dumping
hypotheses in plain English
How to make your hypothesis falsifiable
How to choose one primary success metric
How to set guardrail metrics to protect your wins
How to capture baseline metrics
How to set simple growth targets
How to define who and where for product experiments
Smallest viable scope beats big launches
How to expose new features safely
How to write decision rules for product experiments
Why assumptions don't disappear
How to name owners and roles for product bets
How to validate experiment instrumentation
How to prepare a five-minute bet pitch
Keep bets independent where possible
How to time-box product bets effectively
How to run a pre-mortem analysis
How to run an ethics and consent sweep for user experiments
How to map dependencies and enablement tasks
Avoid vanity hypotheses
How to write a bet card
How to review bets with the trio method
How to plan experiment readouts before you start
How to maintain a decision log
Common bad bets and how to fix them
Context and why it matters in 2026
Turn solid insights into clear product bets. You'll learn how to write a short opportunity brief, frame falsifiable hypotheses, set success and guardrail metrics, and define scope, owners, and decision rules. This is the bridge from discovery to testing, practical, light, and evidence-first.
In modern product teams, progress depends on clear playbooks and measurable outcomes. This module gives you practical steps you can apply immediately while keeping alignment with the broader Product Discovery curriculum.
Step-by-step playbook
Templates and examples
- What a product bet really is
- From insight → opportunity → bet (the chain of custody)
- How to write a one-page opportunity brief
- How to link evidence without dumping
- hypotheses in plain English
- How to make your hypothesis falsifiable
If you are working on AI-enabled workflows, review the glossary terms Prompt library and Reflection loop for reusable implementation patterns.
Metrics to track
- Module completion rate from first to last lesson.
- Lesson-to-lesson progression drop-off points.
- Time to complete versus the estimated 145 minutes.
- Retention into the next module and downstream lesson activity.
FAQ
Who is this module for?
This module is designed for learners following Product Discovery, especially if you want to improve from insight to bets with practical, repeatable steps.
How long does this module take?
Estimated completion time is 145 minutes across 29 lessons.
How should I study this module?
Complete lessons in order, apply one concept immediately in your current project, and review your progress using the metrics section below.
What should I do after this module?
Continue to the next module, then read the related articles to deepen your understanding with tactical examples and case studies.
Part of Product Discovery
Master product discovery: methods, cadence, and opportunity mapping that turn insights into action.
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