Assumption Mapping & Risk Reduction module icon - Product Management course

Assumption Mapping & Risk Reduction

Identify what must be true for your idea to succeed, map those assumptions by importance and evidence, then run the smallest tests that can break the risky ones first. You will use a simple 2x2 assumption map, learn falsification thinking, and build a short risk plan that feeds your next steps. This module sets you up for later work on bets and experiments without going deep into experimentation math.

140 minutes28 lessons

Lessons

1

Why assumptions decide outcomes

2

The five assumption buckets

3

How to create must-be-true lists

4

How to write clean assumption statements

5

How to rate importance without drama

6

How to rate current evidence honestly

7

How to build a 2×2 assumption map

8

Pick the first three risks to attack

9

The falsification mindset in product validation

10

How to choose the lightest test that could fail

11

How to test desirability without code

12

How to run paper prototype usability tests

13

How to run feasibility spikes

14

How to create a viability sanity check

15

How to run ethical risk sweeps

16

Cost vs learning speed in testing

17

How to create a one-page risk plan

18

How to define clear pass/fail signals

21

How to respond when key assumptions fail

22

How to apply the double down principle

23

How to track risk burn-down charts

24

What is a kill list?

25

Avoiding bias in risk ranking

26

How to run a 60-minute assumption mapping workshop

27

How to link risks to your opportunity map

28

How to write a weekly risk readout

29

How to reuse proven test patterns

30

How to create a product team template library

Part of Product Discovery

Master product discovery: methods, cadence, and opportunity mapping that turn insights into action.

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Assumption Mapping & Risk Reduction | Product Discovery | CraftUp