Assumption Mapping & Risk Reduction

Context and why it matters in 2026

Identify what must be true for your idea to succeed, map those assumptions by importance and evidence, then run the smallest tests that can break the risky ones first. You will use a simple 2x2 assumption map, learn falsification thinking, and build a short risk plan that feeds your next steps. This module sets you up for later work on bets and experiments without going deep into experimentation math.

In modern product teams, progress depends on clear playbooks and measurable outcomes. This module gives you practical steps you can apply immediately while keeping alignment with the broader Product Discovery curriculum.

Step-by-step playbook

1. Step 1: Why assumptions decide outcomes
2. Step 2: The five assumption buckets
3. Step 3: How to create must-be-true lists
4. Step 4: How to write clean assumption statements
5. Step 5: How to rate importance without drama
6. Step 6: How to rate current evidence honestly

Templates and examples

• Why assumptions decide outcomes
• The five assumption buckets
• How to create must-be-true lists
• How to write clean assumption statements
• How to rate importance without drama
• How to rate current evidence honestly

If you are working on AI-enabled workflows, review the glossary terms Prompt library and Reflection loop for reusable implementation patterns.

Metrics to track

• Module completion rate from first to last lesson.
• Lesson-to-lesson progression drop-off points.
• Time to complete versus the estimated 140 minutes.
• Retention into the next module and downstream lesson activity.

FAQ